The Return Of PSA Bulk Grading? My Date & Price Prediction
The speaker analyzes PSA's card grading backlog and predicts when bulk grading services will return, estimating a December reopening at $29.99 with a 50-card minimum. He proposes implementing a lottery or loyalty-based system to manage demand surge and prevent the backlog from recurring.
Summary
The speaker addresses three critical questions facing PSA's grading operations: when the backlog will clear, when bulk services will return, and what the pricing will be. PSA publicly announced an 8.2 million card backlog as of October 6th, with a 5 million unit goal before reopening service tiers. Using monthly throughput data showing PSA processes approximately 2.5 million cards monthly, the speaker constructs four scenarios for reaching the 5 million threshold, ranging from November 20th (fastest) to January 26th (slowdown scenario), with December as the most likely timeframe. Historically, PSA's bulk grading service cost $24.99 before the shutdown. The speaker predicts PSA will implement a 20% price increase to $29.99 as demand control, citing today's standard service at $59.99. He anticipates a 50-card minimum (up from the previous 20-25 card requirement), which would primarily serve dealers and bulk submitters rather than casual hobbyists. The speaker proposes PSA should implement either a loyalty-based access system rewarding high-value past customers or a lottery system to prevent the backlog from recurring. He notes that PSA's six global hubs are maintaining high output, and the company's upcoming IPO makes operational success critical. The speaker emphasizes turnaround time as an additional lever PSA can use to manage demand, potentially offering variable wait times based on submission timing.
Key Insights
- PSA's backlog decreased from 10.9 million on August 25th to 8.2 million by October 6th, and at current throughput rates of approximately 2.5 million cards monthly, the company will likely reach its 5 million threshold goal in December
- The previous bulk grading price of $24.99 could increase by 20% to $29.99 to control pentup submission demand and prevent the backlog from immediately surging again upon reopening
- If PSA opens bulk grading without demand controls, the backlog will break again within 36 hours as collectors flood submissions, similar to what occurred at the end of May when the company received over a million cards in days
- A 50-card minimum submission requirement would primarily serve dealers and third-party bulk submitters rather than casual hobbyists who have small stacks of autographed cards they want graded
- PSA's upcoming IPO makes the bulk grading re-entry critical for operational credibility, and any failure to manage demand properly this time could create significant chaos and damage the company's reputation
Topics
Transcript
[0:00] A few big PSA questions right now. Number one, when is this backlog going to clear? Number two, when will they bring back bulk service? And number three, what will it cost? I am going to attempt to answer all three of these questions using some data that I gathered. All right, this is the now infamous backlog tracker. If you don't know what this is, PSA got decided to go public a little while back and just tell you how many cards they have that haven't been graded. They set a goal of five million before they can start to open some tiers. And right now, we're at 8.2. too. So, that's where we're at. I'm [0:31] going…
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