Nides Says Iran War Needs Negotiations

In this interview, Tom Nides, former US ambassador to Israel and vice chairman of Blackstone, discusses the current state of the Iran conflict and paths toward resolution. He expresses concern about the escalating military exchanges, noting that both the US and Iran have struck each other hard, creating instability that affects US allies and drives up oil prices. Nides emphasizes that a military solution alone cannot work and that the president understands this reality.

Nides argues that Iranian negotiators, some of whom were involved in the 2015 JCPOA negotiations, are sophisticated operators who understand the president's reluctance to escalate further. He suggests they are pushing the administration to the brink, knowing that ultimately the president will seek a diplomatic solution.

Regarding regime change—a goal mentioned by the White House early in the conflict—Nides dismisses it as unrealistic. He acknowledges that while 90 million Iranians live under a regime organized by approximately one million IRGC officials, the conditions for a popular uprising leading to regime change do not currently exist. He notes that even if the situation worsens for Iran's population, practical solutions require engagement rather than hopes for internal collapse.

Nides proposes that the only viable path forward involves direct negotiations with Iran and key regional allies including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and Pakistan. He suggests that reopening arms negotiations and getting international inspectors back into Iran are essential steps.

On the Israeli political situation, Nides agrees with journalist David Remnick's analysis that Netanyahu needs the war to continue politically, but clarifies that the Israeli people are disappointed with the war's progress. Both liberal and conservative Israelis were told the war would have substantial benefits, but these have not materialized. With ongoing threats in northern Israel and proxy conflicts continuing, the Israeli population is voicing anxiety against the leadership. Netanyahu finds himself in a difficult position: he wants to demonstrate to voters that he has the situation under control, but has not yet accomplished this goal.