Will the US seize enriched uranium? Well, they've done it before | The Security Brief
Former military analysts discuss the possibility of a US 'smash and grab' operation to seize Iran's enriched uranium from the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center. They draw parallels to the 1994 Project Sapphire operation in Kazakhstan while highlighting the dramatically more complex and dangerous nature of any Iranian operation. The discussion covers potential military assets, special forces involvement, and the concept of operations for such a mission.
Summary
The Security Brief hosts analyze potential US military options to break the deadlock in negotiations with Iran, focusing specifically on the possibility of a special operations raid to seize Iran's enriched uranium stockpile. The discussion is framed around open-source intelligence showing heavy US military transport activity between the US and UK bases, and reporting from Axios suggesting CENTCOM is developing a 'short and powerful' option package involving strikes on Iran.
The analysts outline a broader set of military options being considered, including strikes on Kharg Island (through which 90% of Iran's crude oil flows), targeting ports used to circumvent US blockades using Tomahawk cruise missiles, and increased A-10 Warthog activity in the Strait of Hormuz against IRGC fast attack craft, mine-laying vessels, and drone launch sites.
The conversation then pivots to a historical precedent: Project Sapphire, a 1994 covert US-Kazakhstan-IAEA operation that removed 600 kg of highly enriched uranium (uranium-235) from a poorly secured warehouse at the Ulba Metallurgical Plant in Ust-Kamenogorsk. A civilian-military team landed at an airport 10 km away and conducted the operation under the cover of a humanitarian mission, relocating the material to Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee. The analysts emphasize this was a 'permissive environment' operation — a fundamentally different scenario from Iran.
Using an 'Intel Board' map segment, the hosts walk through the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center's geography — located approximately 450 km east of the Iraqi border and equidistant south of Tehran. The facility was one of three targeted during Operation Midnight Hammer in 2025, when B-2 stealth bombers dropped 30,000 lb Massive Ordnance Penetrators. The analysts note that post-bombing, the uranium may now be buried under rubble with no clear ingress or egress routes.
The concept of operations for a potential raid is broken down in detail. Pre-assault work would involve MQ-9 Reaper and RQ-170 stealth drones conducting pattern-of-life surveillance across the battle space. F-15Es from RAF Lakenheath, F/A-18 Hornets from carrier groups, and F/A-18 Growlers for suppression of enemy air defenses would conduct pre-strike packages. The ground force would likely involve Navy SEALs and Delta Force for the initial assault on Isfahan, with 82nd Airborne providing force protection. Infiltration would use C-17s or C-130s rather than larger aircraft, giving planners flexibility on usable airstrips. An existing airstrip 40 km from the nuclear facility — where two US C-130s were previously destroyed — is noted as a proven but contested option.
Once the facility is secured, the operation would require bulldozers, rubble-clearing equipment, the Nuclear Emergency Support Team (NEST), and engineers to locate the 440 kg of enriched uranium — which may be split across three locations. Secondary objectives would include destroying Iran's centrifuge infrastructure. The analysts conclude that while Project Sapphire took four weeks in a permissive environment, a non-permissive Iranian operation would likely take weeks to months — describing it as a 'completely whole other ball game.'
Key Insights
- The analysts reveal that Project Sapphire (1994) saw the US covertly remove 600 kg of highly enriched uranium from Kazakhstan — enough for approximately 20 nuclear bombs — under the guise of a humanitarian mission, landing just 10 km from the target warehouse. They argue this establishes a real precedent for uranium seizure operations, though they stress it was a 'permissive environment' with no enemy air defenses.
- The analysts argue that Operation Midnight Hammer's B-2 strikes may have made a uranium seizure operation harder, not easier — the enriched uranium at Isfahan is now potentially buried under rubble with 'no way in, no way out,' requiring engineers and the Nuclear Emergency Support Team potentially spending days or weeks just locating the 440 kg stockpile.
- The hosts discuss the two US C-130s destroyed near Isfahan, noting that while the Pentagon's official explanation is that they sank into soft ground, open-source intelligence chatter suggests they were destroyed by incoming IRGC fire, prompting the US to destroy them with airstrikes to prevent sensitive equipment falling into Iranian hands.
- The analyst outlines that any raid on Isfahan would require a layered force: MQ-9 Reapers and RQ-170 stealth drones for intelligence preparation of the battlespace, F-15Es and F/A-18 Hornets for pre-strike packages, F/A-18 Growlers for suppression of enemy air defenses, Navy SEALs and Delta Force for the assault, and 82nd Airborne for force protection — describing it as impossible to conduct without boots on the ground.
- The analyst states that while Project Sapphire took four weeks to execute in a permissive environment, a comparable operation against Isfahan in a non-permissive environment — with underground facilities, active air defenses, IRGC resistance, and post-bombing rubble — would likely take weeks if not months, calling it 'a completely whole other ball game.'
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