What Democrats need to do before 2028 | BBC Americast

The episode opens by framing a central paradox: Donald Trump is deeply unpopular across a broad range of issues, yet the American public is not rallying behind the Democrats with any enthusiasm. The panelists — Anthony, Sarah, and Mariana — explore what this means for the upcoming midterm elections and the 2028 presidential race.

Anthony breaks down Trump's collapsing poll numbers, noting his approval on the economy has fallen to the low 20s in some polls. He explains that to reach such lows, Trump must be losing support not just from independents but from within his own base. Key drivers include his immigration policy alienating Hispanic voters, tariffs inflating prices, and the Iran war proving deeply unpopular. At a conservative CPAC conference in Dallas, Anthony found younger conservatives openly criticizing Trump, saying they felt misled and that the war contradicted his core promises.

The panel then examines the dramatic public break by prominent MAGA media figures. Mariana explains that influencers like Tucker Carlson and Candace Owens built audiences around anti-establishment, conspiracy-adjacent content, and that Trump's alignment with Israel and the war on Iran no longer fits the narrative framework these influencers rely on. She argues Carlson is also skilled at reading what resonates online and may be positioning himself for a future political role. A clip of Tucker Carlson apologizing to his brother — a former Trump speechwriter — for supporting Trump is played, in which Carlson says he feels 'implicated' and sorry for 'misleading people.'

Sarah expresses confusion at the selectivity of this break, noting that Carlson and others tolerated Trump through tariffs, use of the DOJ against political enemies, and numerous controversies, but drew the line at the Iran war. The panel agrees that these influencers run commercial enterprises that thrive on conflict and are incentivized to go wherever clicks and audience engagement lead them.

On the Democrats, Anthony presents a dual picture: their generic approval ratings are nearly as bad as Trump's, hovering in the low-to-mid 30s, partly because left-leaning voters feel the party hasn't pushed back hard enough against Trump. However, on the generic congressional ballot, Democrats lead by 4–8%, and have been winning special elections in districts Trump carried by double digits — including a state legislative seat in the Mar-a-Lago district in Florida.

The panel debates what kind of candidate and strategy Democrats need. Mariana argues that social media presence and authentic personality are essential — 'double haters' (voters who dislike both parties) need to genuinely connect with a person, not just a platform. Sarah points out a structural problem: unlike British politics, there is no official leader of the opposition, leaving Democrats without a unified voice or face. This vacuum will persist until primaries begin.

The discussion turns to whether Democrats will impose ideological litmus tests on candidates, as they did in 2019–2020 when the field was pushed far left by Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. The panel notes Kamala Harris ran a deliberately centrist 2024 campaign, avoiding trans and Palestinian issues at the convention, but was still hit with her 2019 positions. They speculate that culture war battlegrounds for 2028 may shift — trans issues may be replaced by something new Republicans find strategically advantageous — and that Israel/Gaza will be a persistent and complicated issue for the Democratic primary field.

Finally, the panel notes that if the economy is in bad shape by 2027–2028, it will dominate everything, as it did in 2008. On the Republican side, few credible non-MAGA alternatives to Trump have emerged, as those willing to challenge him tend to be retiring politicians rather than rising ones.