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Inside the Private Stock Market Boom: SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI & the Rise of Secondaries

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg39m 38s

A panel discussion featuring Brad Gerstner, Gavin Baker, and Forge CEO Kelly Rodriguez explores the explosive growth of private secondary markets, the democratization of access to late-stage private companies like SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI, and the risks and opportunities for retail investors entering this space. The conversation covers why companies stay private longer, the structural changes enabling retail participation, and specific investment opportunities in private markets.

Summary

The panel opens with Brad Gerstner presenting data showing that secondary market transactions have more than doubled relative to the 2021 peak, with employee secondaries now representing 31% of all primary venture activity in 2025. Secondaries have shifted from trading at an 80-cent discount to a 106-cent premium, signaling intense demand for access to private company equity in names like SpaceX, Anthropic, and Anduril.

Gavin Baker argues that secondaries are necessary because companies staying private longer creates a problematic situation where employees are wealthy on paper but cash-poor, unable to afford homes or lifestyle improvements despite years of contributions. He and others express genuine disagreement with the trend of staying private longer, arguing founders avoid public markets primarily to escape scrutiny and sycophantic private investors who won't deliver hard truths. Baker uses Zuckerberg's HTML5 mistake as a case study, arguing that public market pressure would have forced faster correction of strategic errors.

Kelly Rodriguez, former private company CEO and now public company CEO after selling Forge to Schwab, explains the structural difference in the CEO role between private and public contexts. He describes Forge's approach of building regulated, permissioned SPV and fund infrastructure that connects private company equity to Schwab's 46 million investors and $12 trillion in assets. He recounts successfully onboarding SpaceX onto the Forge platform starting in 2018-2019, ultimately leading to Schwab being named an IPO allocator when SpaceX goes public.

Brad Gerstner raises significant concerns about retail investors being used as exit liquidity, warning against YOLOing into double-fee SPV structures and levered ETFs. He notes that 14 levered SpaceX ETFs are planned to launch on IPO day, which he sees as a warning signal. He advocates for measured, sized entry rather than all-in bets, and argues the entire VC and private market ecosystem needs to go public sooner to restore trust among the 80% of Americans who feel excluded from capitalism's gains.

The panel discusses the upcoming democratization of access through interval funds and closed-end fund structures with $500 minimums for non-accredited investors, as well as potential changes to SEC accreditation rules including a sophisticated investor test. They also note that long-only mutual funds holding up to 15% in privates will release hundreds of billions in new demand for public market shares once these companies IPO and lock-ups expire.

On venture dynamics, Baker observes that firms without exposure to trillion-dollar companies are beginning to behave strangely, writing speculative call options to manufacture a narrative, while those with exposure remain disciplined. The panel compares current market conditions favorably to 1999-2000, describing current conditions as more like 2021 — fully valued but backed by real businesses with real revenue.

The panel concludes with specific private company picks: Brad highlights Sierra (Brett Taylor's agent-native Salesforce replacement) and Revolut (European neobank expanding to the US with 14 lines of business and $1B+ revenue); Gavin names ARIA and DriveNets in AI networking infrastructure; and Jason Calacanis highlights Vast (space stations) and Zipline (autonomous drone delivery), sharing the story of Zipline's origin delivering maternal medicine in Africa before expanding to the US.

About this episode

<p>(0:00) Brad Gerstner, Gavin Baker, and Kelly Rodriques join the Besties!</p> <p>(0:47) Secondary Markets are Booming & Competing with IPOs</p> <p>(3:10) Why Companies are Staying Private So Long?</p> <p>(9:22) SPVs, the Forge-Schwab Deal, Democratizing Private Market Access</p> <p>(13:28) Secondary Markets as Exit Liquidity for VCs</p> <p>(27:00) The Private Market Bubble?</p> <p>(32:03) Hottest Secondary Companies Right Now</p> <p>Follow Brad:</p> <p><a href="https://x.com/altcap">https://x.com/altcap</a></p> <p>Follow Gavin:</p> <p><a href="https://x.com/GavinSBaker">https://x.com/GavinSBaker</a></p> <p>Follow Kelly:</p> <p><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/kelly-rodriques-9b49418">https://www.linkedin.com/in/kelly-rodriques-9b49418</a></p> <p>Follow the besties:</p> <p><a href="https://x.com/chamath">https://x.com/chamath</a></p> <p><a href="https://x.com/Jason">https://x.com/Jason</a></p> <p><a href="https://x.com/DavidSacks">https://x.com/DavidSacks</a></p> <p><a href="https://x.com/friedberg">https://x.com/friedberg</a></p> <p>Follow on X:</p> <p><a href="https://x.com/theallinpod">https://x.com/theallinpod</a></p> <p>Follow on Instagram:</p> <p><a href="https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod">https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod</a></p> <p>Follow on TikTok:</p> <p><a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod">https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod</a></p> <p>Follow on LinkedIn:</p> <p><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod">https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod</a></p> <p>Intro Music Credit:</p> <p><a href="https://rb.gy/tppkzl">https://rb.gy/tppkzl</a></p> <p><a href="https://x.com/yung_spielburg">https://x.com/yung_spielburg</a></p>

Key Insights

  • Brad Gerstner argues that secondary transactions in 2025 are more than double the 2021 peak and now represent 31% of all primary venture activity, making secondaries a principal exit mechanism alongside IPOs and M&A.
  • Gavin Baker contends that the primary reason founders stay private longer is to avoid scrutiny and that private investors, wanting continued deal access, systematically withhold honest negative feedback from management teams — a dynamic he calls the 'sycophantic nature of private markets.'
  • Brad Gerstner claims that venture capitalists culturally neglect the sell decision, and that as companies stay private for 15+ years at trillion-dollar valuations, VCs must actively think about returning DPI to LPs rather than just holding indefinitely.
  • Kelly Rodriguez argues that Forge's pitch to founders like Elon Musk is that building a retail investor base of millions through Schwab's platform ahead of IPO improves price discovery and distribution quality — a pitch he claims worked, with Schwab named as a SpaceX IPO allocator.
  • Gavin Baker observes that when large companies like SpaceX eventually IPO, hundreds of billions in pent-up demand from long-only mutual funds will re-enter the market, as these funds have been capped at self-imposed private market limits of 3-7% and those positions will move out of the private bucket upon public listing.
  • Brad Gerstner warns that 14 levered ETFs are planned to launch on the day of the SpaceX IPO, which he interprets as a strong signal that the market is 'bouncing along the top' even if not definitively at a peak.
  • Gavin Baker argues that venture firms without material exposure to at least one trillion-dollar-plus private company are beginning to exhibit franchise risk behavior — writing speculative 'call option' investments to generate a narrative rather than making disciplined bets.
  • Brad Gerstner claims that Revolut, a European neobank with tens of millions of customers and 14 lines of business doing approximately $1 billion in revenue, was a compelling secondary buy pitched to him backstage, representing the 'unbundling of incumbents on a modern stack' thesis in regulated financial markets.

Topics

Secondary private market growth and structureDemocratization of private market access for retail investorsWhy companies stay private longer and the consequencesSPV regulation and transparency concernsEmployee liquidity at late-stage private companiesRetail investor risk and exit liquidity dynamicsSpecific private company investment opportunitiesLong-only mutual fund dry powder post-IPO

Transcript

Everybody wants access to these private markets. Right now to discuss all of this is Kelly Rodriguez, the Forge CEO. We see a world where the private market opens up and is accessible to any U.S. and global investor. There's 19 companies in the private market AI basket. These companies have grown on average 300%. Please join us in welcoming Gavin Baker, Managing partner and CIO of Atreides. The ROI on AI has empirically, factually, unambiguously been positive. Investing is the search for truth. We welcome in Brad Gerstner. It's good to be back with you. You have a program called Invest America. I think we have a historic moment right now to get everybody into the game of capitalism.…

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