CA Governor Candidate Steve Hilton on Why California is Destroying Itself & How a Republican Can Win
Steve Hilton, a Republican candidate for California governor, outlines his platform centered on a dramatic tax overhaul, cutting government fraud and waste, reforming housing and education, and addressing homelessness and crime. A naturalized American citizen and former senior adviser to UK Prime Minister David Cameron, Hilton draws on his background as the child of Hungarian refugees to argue for free markets and individual liberty. He believes a Republican can win California by assembling a multiracial working-class coalition around affordability-focused policies.
Summary
Steve Hilton, a British-born naturalized American citizen and former senior policy adviser to UK Prime Minister David Cameron, appears on the All-In Interview Show to discuss his Republican candidacy for California governor. He opens by sharing his personal background: his parents were Hungarian refugees who fled communism, and his stepfather literally ran across the border during the 1956 Soviet invasion at age 14. Hilton credits this upbringing with shaping his deep appreciation for freedom, opportunity, and the dignity of work. He moved to California in 2012 when his wife Rachel Whetstone took a senior role at Google, later worked at Facebook and Uber. Hilton has since renounced his UK citizenship to be, in his words, 'all in' on America.
On taxes, Hilton's signature proposal is eliminating state income tax entirely for Californians earning under $100,000 — a threshold he notes is officially classified as 'low income' in many California counties — and replacing the current complex rate structure with a flat 7.5% tax for those earning above that threshold. He argues this would require approximately an 18.5% reduction in state revenue, equivalent to about $60 billion, which would simply return the budget to roughly pre-pandemic levels. He notes the state budget has nearly doubled in the last decade and grown 75% in five years. He also references his 'Cal DOGE' (California Department of Government Efficiency) initiative, which has published four fraud reports estimating approximately $80 billion per year — around 20% of the state budget — is lost to fraud, waste, and abuse. Specific examples include $928 million of a $1 billion climate fund being diverted to Democrat-aligned nonprofits instead of solar panel installation, $350 million in cannabis tax revenue going to activist nonprofits instead of substance abuse prevention, and $3.8 billion in the Project Homekey homelessness program largely enriching developers.
On housing, Hilton identifies three structural forces driving unaffordability: union power, litigation, and climate dogma. He explains that California's building codes — requiring EV charging infrastructure, solar panels, and enhanced insulation — add significant cost compared to neighboring states. The California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA), and specifically its private right of action, enables unions to file lawsuits as leverage to force project labor agreements mandating union-only workforces at prevailing wages two to three times market rate. He attempted to qualify a ballot initiative capping impact fees and eliminating CEQA's private right of action but failed to raise sufficient funds, and when he pursued it legislatively, a sympathetic Democratic legislator told him privately 'the unions run this place.' He contrasts California's roughly $30,000 per-door in government fees with Texas's under $1,000, and notes Texas produces three times as many new housing units per capita.
On energy, Hilton explains that California now imports nearly 80% of its oil, with Iraq as the top supplier, despite having significant in-state reserves. He attributes this to regulatory suppression of permits by the California Department of Geologic and Energy Management (CalGEM) rather than legislation, meaning a governor could reverse course by simply appointing pro-energy regulators. He notes the climate policy rationale is counterproductive: oil is shipped via bunker fuel tankers — the most polluting form of transportation — and California's Air Resources Board only counts carbon emissions starting 12 miles offshore. Approximately $2 of California's gas price premium over other states is regulatory rather than tax-based.
On education, Hilton highlights that California spends roughly $27,000 per student per year — near the highest in the nation — yet only 47% of students meet basic English standards and only 35% meet math standards. He points to Mississippi as a model, which achieves far better outcomes at one-third the per-student cost through phonics-based reading instruction and a strict policy of holding back third-graders who cannot pass basic reading tests. He proposes assigning visible public grades to every school and every teacher to enable accountability and reward high performers.
On crime, Hilton argues the core problem is enforcement failure rather than lack of laws. He supports Prop 36, which reversed some of Prop 47's theft decriminalization and passed with 70% of the vote, but notes it is not being properly implemented. He identifies the prison closure program — which reduced California's prison population from 165,000 to 93,000 — as a primary driver of crime, as it has overloaded county jails and created a 'catch and release' dynamic that demoralizes law enforcement and discourages crime reporting.
On homelessness, Hilton outlines a three-part plan: first, enforce existing laws against encampments now that the Supreme Court's Grants Pass ruling has removed the legal excuse for inaction; second, mandate drug and alcohol recovery treatment — rehab or jail — rather than making it optional; third, redirect money from the 'homeless industrial complex' into large-scale mental health facilities, using the Medicaid IMD waiver (which California has not applied for) to fund facilities larger than 16 beds.
On his path to victory, Hilton notes he is leading in polls, has Trump's endorsement, and argues the votes are mathematically available: Trump received 6.1 million votes in California in 2024 without campaigning there, more than the roughly 5.9 million needed to win a midterm gubernatorial race. He believes a multiracial working-class coalition can be assembled around his affordability platform — $3 gas, halved electric bills, no income tax on the first $100,000, and attainable homeownership — targeting voters hardest hit by California's high cost of living.
Key Insights
- Hilton argues that California's climate policy has made its environmental goals actively counterproductive: by suppressing in-state oil production, the state now imports nearly 80% of its oil, primarily from Iraq, shipped via bunker fuel tankers — the most polluting form of transportation — while California's Air Resources Board only counts those carbon emissions starting 12 miles offshore.
- Hilton claims his Cal DOGE fraud analysis of publicly available state data found approximately $80 billion per year — around 20% of the state budget — is lost to fraud, waste, and abuse, citing specific examples such as $928 million of a $1 billion climate fund going to Democrat-aligned nonprofits rather than solar panel installation for low-income residents.
- Hilton argues that 70% of CEQA lawsuits are filed by unions not for environmental protection but as leverage to force project labor agreements requiring union-only workforces at prevailing wages two to three times market rate, and that a Democratic legislator privately confirmed this to him by gesturing at the Capitol and saying 'the unions run this place.'
- Hilton contends that Trump received 6.1 million votes in California in 2024 without campaigning or spending on ads there, which exceeds the approximately 5.9 million votes needed to win the 2026 midterm gubernatorial race — arguing the Republican vote base alone is mathematically sufficient as a starting point.
- Hilton argues that California spends nearly the most per student of any state at roughly $27,000 per year yet achieves some of the worst outcomes — only 35% meet basic math standards — and points to Mississippi achieving dramatically better results at one-third the cost through phonics instruction and a policy of holding back third-graders who cannot pass basic reading tests.
Topics
Transcript
[0:00] All right, everybody. Welcome back to the All-In Interview Show. We're very lucky today to have a candidate for the governor of California who is extremely unique in a number of ways. First of all, he's a Republican. And second, he's a Brit. Welcome to the program, Steve Hilton. You've decided to increase the degree of difficulty in two ways, but you're polling fantastic. You've got five or six people in the polls. So, >> he's leading the field. [0:30] >> You're uh leading the field. Obviously, it's going to get narrowed a bit when the Democrats shiv a couple more people and get them out of the race and then pick their eventual winner in their cobble um…
Full transcript available for MurmurCast members
Sign Up to AccessMore from All-In Podcast
"We've never seen anything like this." - Brad Gerstner on Anthropic's Historic Revenue Ramp
Brad Gerstner argues that Anthropic is experiencing an unprecedented revenue ramp, potentially reaching over $100 billion by year-end with the capacity to 3-5x again next year. He emphasizes this is unlike anything seen in Silicon Valley history, driven by intelligence being the largest addressable market ever and frontier labs' dominance despite enterprise optimization efforts.
Open Source Wins, AGI Is Here, and Scorsese’s AI Toolkit with CEOs of Cerebras & Black Forest Labs
Andrew Feldman (Cerebras CEO) and Robin Rombach (Black Forest Labs CEO) discuss the massive infrastructure buildout for AI, the emergence of AGI through reasoning models, and the role of generative AI in creative production. They explore how AI is becoming a tool for intent understanding, the importance of open-source models, and applications ranging from data center chip design to filmmaking partnerships with Martin Scorsese.
Four Reasons Why Gavin Newsom’s Presidential Chances are Dropping FAST - Nate Silver
Nate Silver analyzes Gavin Newsom's declining presidential prospects, noting his poll numbers have dropped from 25% to 15% in Democratic primaries and from 33% to 22% on Polymarket. Silver argues Newsom's strategy of continuity with Biden and Harris has failed electorally, while Democrats increasingly prefer younger candidates with purple-state credentials.
Nate Silver Explains The Democrats' 3 Warring Factions: Progressives, Abundance, Resistance
Nate Silver identifies three distinct factions within the Democratic Party: the progressive left (represented by AOC and Bernie Sanders), the 'abundance libs' (market-friendly centrists influenced by figures like Ezra Klein), and the 'resistance libs' (partisan Democrats focused on opposing Republicans). He argues that Gavin Newsom's support for Biden signals alignment with resistance lib voters who prefer combative leaders.
Nvidia is ready to fight back
The speaker claims Nvidia's open-source LLMs are competitive with Claude for 95% of use cases, and argues that Nvidia has been downplaying these models to avoid concerns from major customers. Now facing competition from chip initiatives by OpenAI, Anthropic, AMD, and Elon Musk, Nvidia is aggressively positioning itself to control the entire hardware-to-software stack by offering competitive models for free.