Lukashenko NO To Zelensky Belarus Stands With Russia; Russian Troops Enter Sumy; EU NO To Kiev Entry
A geopolitical analysis of Ukraine-Belarus tensions, Russian military advances in Donbass, and the broader Russia-West conflict as of June 2026. Lukashenko firmly rejects Zelensky's ultimatums and commits Belarus to Russia's side, while Russian forces make significant battlefield progress toward capturing key Ukrainian cities.
Summary
The program opens with discussion of Zelensky's threats against Belarus, demanding it cut oil supplies to Russia and shut down relay stations used for drone operations. Lukashenko responded firmly through both emissaries and direct statements to Russian official Andrey Vorobyov, warning that any Ukrainian attack on Belarus would trigger full Belarus-Russia military cooperation and transform the conflict into a total war. The speaker analyzes this as effectively ending the possibility of a Ukrainian incursion into Belarus. Russian officials including Putin, Lavrov, and Medvedev have made statements indicating negotiations with the West have stalled and that military victory is now the primary objective, with regime change in Kyiv being discussed as a Russian war aim. On the military front, the analysis heavily relies on war correspondent Marat Kholin's assessment. Kholin reports that Russian forces have now broken through the outer edge of Ukraine's fortified Donbass defensive line and hold the high ground overlooking a river valley containing the towns of Lyman, Slovyansk, Druzhkovka, and Konstantinovka. The speaker emphasizes that Russian advances will now shift from difficult uphill urban warfare to downhill advances through more open terrain, making the capture of these towns significantly easier. Kholin predicts all of Donbass will fall to Russia by year's end. The Russian military has grown from 100 equivalent divisions in February 2022 to 225 divisions currently, with vastly superior combat experience and equipment. In northeastern Ukraine, Russian forces have broken through the last main defense line north of Sumy city, with reconnaissance parties reportedly entering the city itself. The speaker notes Ukraine's dangerous delay in evacuating Sumy's civilian population to preserve narratives of success for the NATO summit. Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia, while notable in Crimea, are characterized as primarily diversionary tactics intended to impress Donald Trump with narratives of Russian vulnerability. The EU has rejected fast-tracking Ukraine's membership, which the speaker frames as a betrayal of the geopolitical bargain that sparked the original Euro-Maidan protests. Regarding the Persian Gulf, the speaker argues the US has no intention of honoring its memorandum of understanding with Iran and is merely buying time to restock arsenals for future conflict.
About this episode
Topic 1939 Alexander Mercouris on The Duran delivers a sweeping strategic analysis as Lukashenko explicitly tells Zelensky's envoys that any attack on Belarus means a completely different and far more devastating war, Russian troops are spotted inside Sumy as the northeastern front approaches a critical breaking point, and the EU quietly shelves Ukraine's fast-track membership bid after a majority of member states push back. Drawing on war correspondent Marat Khazin's latest frontline assessment, Mercouris maps how the Russian military now holds the high ground above the entire Donbass fortified line and explains why Kostiantynivka, Lyman, and ultimately Sloviansk are set to fall within months. 00:00:00 Introduction and Zelensky's Threats Against Belarus 00:01:43 Why a Ukrainian Attack on Belarus Was Plausible 00:03:21 Belarus Has Small Forces and Old Equipment 00:05:21 Trump and Lukashenko's Relationship Factor 00:06:32 Reports of Putin and Lukashenko Planning Summit 00:07:11 Russian Security Council Meets on Belarus Crisis 00:09:49 Lukashenko's Message to Zelensky's Envoys in Minsk 00:11:24 Belarus Will Join the War on Russia's Side If Attacked 00:13:18 Moscow Region Governor Rushed to Minsk as Putin's Envoy 00:17:49 Zelensky Claims Relay Stations Switched Off 00:20:23 Lavrov Says Russia Negotiations Are at a Standstill 00:24:14 Medvedev Outlines Scenarios for Regime Change in Kiev 00:29:39 Ukrainian Drone Strikes on Russia and Crimea Analyzed 00:37:24 Donbass Fortified Line and the Push Toward Lyman and Slavyansk 00:42:57 Russian Army Now Holds High Ground Above Donbass Valley 00:49:18 Russian Troops Spotted Inside Sumy City 00:57:57 EU Council Rejects Fast Tracking Ukraine Membership 01:04:04 Strike on Voronezh and the Dirty Dagger Missile 01:08:20 Iran MOU Stalemate and Risk of the Next Round ***THE DURAN SHOP*** https://theduranshop.com ***REVERSE GEAR SHOP*** Athleisure with Style https://reversegear.shop ***THE DURAN COMMUNITY ON LOCALS*** https://theduran.locals.com Join Now Get 1 Month Free Trial ***OUR OFFICIAL CHANNELS*** THE DURAN: https://www.youtube.com/@TheDuran ALEX: https://www.youtube.com/alexchristoforou ***CRYPTO SUPPORT*** BITCOIN: 3JvdnoyWMb93hSRgk58ZstUxg11PW9mKSr ETHEREUM: 0xF39BdFb41f639B82E3D2Bf022828bC6394F533A3 LTC: MGFiMC18ZViF6DcCixMqAAP11TG4tF6Acj EMC2: EXX4KK9pZLx7uiLWnCXtp7iMKjtq6o5b6R ***DONATE*** CREDIT CARD: https://donorbox.org/the-duran SUBSCRIBE STAR: https://subscribestar.com/theduran PATREON: https://patreon.com/theduran ***VIDEO PLATFORMS*** RUMBLE THE DURAN: https://rumble.com/c/theduran ODYSEE: THE DURAN: https://odysee.com/@theduran ALEXANDER: https://odysee.com/@AlexanderMercouris:a ALEX: https://odysee.com/@alexchristoforou:7 BITCHUTE: THE DURAN: https://www.bitchute.com/theduran/ ALEXANDER: https://www.bitchute.com/alexandermercouris ALEX: https://www.bitchute.com/channel/izwNAdmMGIC7/ ***AUDIO PODCASTS*** SPOTIFY: https://spoti.fi/3pMrfPD APPLE PODCASTS: https://apple.co/2H9Hk0a SOUNDCLOUD: https://bit.ly/354ASQ9 ***FREE SPEECH PLATFORMS*** TELEGRAM: https://t.me/thedurancom X (Twitter): https://x.com/AMercouris GAB: https://gab.ai/TheDuran MINDS: https://minds.com/theduran OK: https://ok.ru/group/60904083488959 Amazing music contribution from Peter Brown. Follow Peter's music: https://soundcloud.com/peterboy100
Key Insights
- Lukashenko told Zelensky's representatives that if Ukraine attacks Belarus, the warfare will change drastically into a completely different type of war with Belarus fighting alongside Russia
- Russian Security Council meeting discussed both internal security issues and relations with closest neighbors, suggesting Belarus and potential Ukrainian threats were central topics
- Marat Kholin assessed that Ukrainian drone offensives are mostly intended to divert attention from critical battle front situations and to impress Donald Trump with narratives of Russian vulnerability
- Russian forces have captured the high ground overlooking the river valley containing Donbass's fortified towns, which will make capturing these towns much easier than previous urban warfare
- The Russian military has grown from approximately 100 equivalent divisions in February 2022 to 225 divisions currently, with far better equipment and the most battle-hardened and experienced forces probably anywhere in the world
- Marat Kholin predicts that all of Donbass will fall to Russian control relatively quickly, certainly by the end of 2026, with fighting not expected to be prolonged due to Ukrainian reserve shortages
- Russian reconnaissance parties have reportedly been seen in Sumy city itself, indicating the Russian breakthrough in northeastern Ukraine and making Sumy a frontline city
- Ukraine's authorities have not ordered evacuation of Sumy despite Russian presence because doing so would admit an operational crisis and undermine their narrative of success ahead of the NATO summit
- The European Union majority rejected fast-tracking Ukrainian membership, saying Ukraine is far from ready and that EU membership would dilute the union and weaken its legal base
- The entire Ukraine crisis began with the question of EU membership, which was the original cause of the Orange Revolution of 2004 and Euro-Maidan protests of 2013-2014
- New American-designed cruise missiles called Dirty Dagger with a range of 450 kilometers were reportedly used in the strike on Voronezh, penetrating Russian air defense due to their novelty
- The speaker argues the United States has no intention of honoring the memorandum of understanding with Iran and is using it to buy time to restock arsenals for future conflict, mirroring Russian warnings about the Minsk agreement
Topics
Transcript
[0:00] Good day. Today is Thursday 25th June 2026 and before I proceed with this program, let me remind you to tick the like button and to check your subscription to this channel. Now, a few days ago, the president of Ukraine, Vladimir Zalinski, made a whole succession of extraordinary threats against Belleris. He said that Belleris must stop supplying oil and oil products [0:30] to Russia to supplement um the fuel that Russia itself produces and to maintain as Zalinski says the supply of fuel to the Russian military. He also demanded that um Belleris take steps to shut down all of the various relay poles that the Russians use in order to communicate with drones that um conduct…
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